As many as 1 in 3 Americans could have diabetes in 40 years if current trends continue, according to a new analysis from the CDC. The incidence of diabetes is expected to rise from 8 newly diagnosed cases per 1,000 people in 2008 to 15 per 1,000 by 2050.

The CDC and Emory University report, recently published in Popular Health Metrics, demonstrates that the rise in type 2 diabetes is primarily due to the continuously increasing overweight and obese population in this country.

This projection assumes that recent increases in new cases of diabetes will continue, and people who have diabetes will also live longer, adding to the total number of people with the disease. The increase also is a reflection of the growth of diabetes internationally. According to the International Diabetes Federation, approximately 285 million people across the world had diabetes this year—a number expected to increase to 438 million by 2030.

Risk factors for type 2 diabetes include older age, obesity, family history, having diabetes while pregnant, a sedentary lifestyle, and race/ethnicity.  African-Americans, Hispanics, American Indians/Alaska Natives, and some Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders are at higher risk for the disease.

CDC and its partners are working on a variety of initiatives to prevent type 2 diabetes and to reduce its complications.